Risk is the deviation from the expected
Transcript
Risk is about the chance of something happening that may have an impact on the achievement of your objectives.
The effect of uncertainty is a deviation from the expected, either positive or negative, according to the international risk standard, ISO 31000. If the deviation from what was expected is negative, it is the popular notion of risk.
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Your success is determined by your objectives, your plans to achieve your objectives and the implementation of your plans.
The first point to note is that objective setting is crucial for executing your strategy. This is where all objectives must be linked to your strategy or purpose.
Your objectives must be SMART – Specific, measurable, achievable, relevant and time-based.
You will accomplish your strategy or goals and become successful when you have achieved your objectives.
For example, you will achieve your strategy or goal to “maximise membership growth, retention and involvement” when you achieve or exceed your objective to “increase membership from 500 to 650”.
The second point to note is that if you want to be successful, you need plans to achieve your objectives. In the example, you need plans to “increase membership from 500 to 650”.
The aim of planning is to facilitate and enable the achievement of your objectives. It focuses your attention on the attainment of your objectives. Planning forces you to consider the future and what you need to do to achieve success. You need to revise your plans, if necessary, for achieving objectives along your journey to success.
The third point to note is that your plans need to be implemented. They must be implemented effectively. If you don’t implement your plan to “increase membership from 500 to 650”, you will not reach your goal of “maximising membership growth, retention and involvement”.
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The reality is that you will not be successful if you have the wrong goal or strategy to start with, if you have a poorly written plan that does not help you achieve your objectives, or if you have a poor implementation of your well-written plan.
The outcome should not be unexpected if you have one or more all these occurrences. Your failure is, therefore, expected.
If you do not have a great strategy to start with, you will not be successful. Your outcome is expected.
If you do not have a plan or a well-written plan for that matter, you cannot effectively implement your strategy or translate your strategy into positive results. Your outcome is expected.
And if you don’t effectively implement your plan, your failure is expected.
When these negative outcomes are expected, there is no risk or uncertainty associated with your performance. You get what is expected or planned for. There is no deviation from what you had unconsciously planned for.
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Alternately, you would expect success when you have a great strategy that is aligned to your purpose and goal, when you have a great plan that translates your strategy into positive results and when you have effectively implemented your plan.
But if you still experience an unexpected deviation, then there are real risks or uncertainties that need to be identified and managed. You manage the potential consequence of uncertainties, risks and opportunities so that you can get back on the road to success.
This is where risk is defined in terms of an unexpected deviation from what is expected.
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