Transcript

Let me start with a passage from Alice’s Adventures in Wonderland, Chapter 6.

The conversation between the Cat and Alice clearly demonstrate that if you do not know where you want to go, it does not matter which way you go. You will end up somewhere “if you only walk long enough.”

“Would you tell me, please, which way I ought to go from here?”

“That depends a good deal on where you want to get to,” said the Cat.

“I don’t much care where –” said Alice.

“Then it doesn’t matter which way you go,” said the Cat.

“– so long as I get SOMEWHERE,” Alice added as an explanation.

“Oh, you’re sure to do that,” said the Cat, “if you only walk long enough.”

So often, individuals and organisations do not know where they really want to go. They can’t clearly articulate what success looks like and how to measure that success.

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A pilot knows the plane’s destination and planned flight path. When the plane is in flight, the pilot must constantly monitor the plane’s performance and adjust the direction of the plane’s nose. The pointing direction of the plane’s nose compensates for the wind direction and other external factors so that the plane follows the actual path over the ground. If the wind is different from the planned flight path, the pilot must immediately adjust the plane’s heading to bring it safely to its planned destination.

Pilots are clear about their destination and the key objective of reaching their destination safely.

Pilots also know that their plane will be off-course 95% of the time and are prepared to respond constantly by making the appropriate adjustments or agile course corrections to get the plane back on the actual path over the ground.

In sharp contrast, organisations have so many ‘goals’ that it is difficult to clearly articulate what the actual destination is, let alone how and when to get there.

Rather than absorbing the situation calmly, responding to changes systematically, and making appropriate course corrections to the way things are done, organisations over-react and introduce nervousness and controls that are counter-productive and over-engineered.

[Slide]

Therefore, to thrive successfully in an uncertain world, you must ask yourself two questions:

• Are you clear about what to do (the outcome to be achieved)?
• Do you know how to do it (processes, methods, experience)?

When both “what’s to be done” and “how to do it” are well understood, there will be lower levels of uncertainty and ambiguity. The risks are largely known and manageable.

When the objective is clear but the way to achieve the objective is uncertain, success or failure is clear-cut. The difficulty is knowing what the best way is to achieve the objective.

When the tools and techniques are well-known, but the final outcome is uncertain, you must continually measure the results, provide feedback information, and adapt the mix of activities to optimise the likelihood of success. The key value measurement is attempting to continuously answer the question “is it worth spending more or should you cut and run?”

When no one is sure of the optimum outcome or how best to achieve it, the only option is to proceed carefully. Stop at regular intervals to check exactly where you are, and replan the way forward. Both ambiguity and uncertainty are high.

[Slide]

Thanks for watching.

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